Abstract: In the digital consumable industry, shortage of accessories become a serious obstacle for enterprise now to win the market. Deterministic models are used for the optimal procurement and pricing function and the profit function of the manufactories according to the conditions of choosing strategy. And then, stochastic models are used to build the expectation and the risk of the profit function under multi-stage procurement when the shortage rate obeys normal distribution. It provides the methods and foundation for making the decision, forecasting the profits and avoiding the risk.