Economic development and CO₂ emissions in China: a multi-dimensional analysis

The analysis on driving factors of carbon emissions in different sectors or energy types in China at the provincial level is limited. This study measures the short-term and long-term effects of economic levels on carbon emissions across sectors and energy types respectively, using the provincial data from 2000 to 2019. The results suggest that carbon emissions in transportation sector will keep a rapid increasing trend in all provinces. Those in industrial sector in most provinces will decline with GDP growth, while in less-developed provinces such as Gansu will increase. Those from natural gas consumption in all provinces will increase, suggesting a transition to clean energy. A decomposition of the GDP level elasticity of carbon emissions suggests that the transportation sector and oil contributed the largest to the overall elasticity. The findings provide reference for China’s central and local governments to implement targeted carbon reduction policies by sectors and energy types.