Assessing socioeconomic risks of climate change through integrated modelling

TY - JOUR

T1 - Assessing socioeconomic risks of climate change through integrated modelling

AU - Chang, Jun Jie

AU - Mi, Zhifu

AU - Yu, Biying

AU - Yuan, Xiao Chen

AU - Yang, Bo

AU - Liu, Si Yu

AU - Hu, Yu Xiang

AU - Wei, Yi Ming

N1 - Publisher Copyright: © 2026 The Author(s).

PY - 2026/1/23

Y1 - 2026/1/23

N2 - Climate change poses significant socio-economic risks, necessitating integrated assessment modelling that bridges natural and socioeconomic systems to identify and manage climate risks. However, research on key components of integrated assessment frameworks remains fragmented across disciplines, lacking explicit integration with the theoretical framework of climate change risk. This hinders the practical application of integrated assessment approaches in climate risk management. In this narrative review, we synthesize key elements of integrated assessment modelling—climate-related scenarios, climate simulations, climate impacts and damages, and uncertainties—within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s risk framework, defined by hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. We examine how these elements are represented in integrated assessment models (IAMs) and empirical approaches, highlighting their modelling features and scientific foundations. We identify critical challenges in current research, including (1) the treatment of uncertainty, (2) monetization of climate damages, (3) representation of long-term economic impacts, and (4) incorporation of high-resolution climate extremes and adaptation dynamics. We propose that addressing these gaps requires bridging IAMs and empirical methods to improve multi-model integration, economic characterization, and the understanding of climate–economy interactions across spatial and temporal scales.

AB - Climate change poses significant socio-economic risks, necessitating integrated assessment modelling that bridges natural and socioeconomic systems to identify and manage climate risks. However, research on key components of integrated assessment frameworks remains fragmented across disciplines, lacking explicit integration with the theoretical framework of climate change risk. This hinders the practical application of integrated assessment approaches in climate risk management. In this narrative review, we synthesize key elements of integrated assessment modelling—climate-related scenarios, climate simulations, climate impacts and damages, and uncertainties—within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s risk framework, defined by hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. We examine how these elements are represented in integrated assessment models (IAMs) and empirical approaches, highlighting their modelling features and scientific foundations. We identify critical challenges in current research, including (1) the treatment of uncertainty, (2) monetization of climate damages, (3) representation of long-term economic impacts, and (4) incorporation of high-resolution climate extremes and adaptation dynamics. We propose that addressing these gaps requires bridging IAMs and empirical methods to improve multi-model integration, economic characterization, and the understanding of climate–economy interactions across spatial and temporal scales.

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/105029958893

U2 - 10.59717/j.xinn-energy.2026.100140

DO - 10.59717/j.xinn-energy.2026.100140

M3 - Review article

AN - SCOPUS:105029958893

SN - 3006-418X

VL - 3

JO - Innovation Energy

JF - Innovation Energy

IS - 1

M1 - 100140

ER -