Behavioral uncertainty in EV charging drives heterogeneous grid load variability under climate goals

TY - JOUR

T1 - Behavioral uncertainty in EV charging drives heterogeneous grid load variability under climate goals

AU - Zhang, Bin

AU - Xin, Qingyao

AU - Chen, Siyuan

AU - Wang, Zhaohua

AU - Lu, Yang

AU - Niu, Niu

AU - Zhang, Fang

AU - Liu, Guangchuan

AU - Bansal, Prateek

N1 - Publisher Copyright: © The Author(s) 2025.

PY - 2026/12

Y1 - 2026/12

N2 - Large-scale deployment of electric vehicles (EVs) to meet climate goals imposes dual pressures on power system reliability: increased electricity demand and intensified daily load variability arising from uncertain charging behavior. This study quantifies the magnitude and spatial distribution of behavior-induced load variability in China under alternative climate scenarios, using a scalable model calibrated with minute-level EV charging data. EV adoption consistent with carbon-neutrality goals is projected to raise electricity demand by 3.2% in 2050, requiring an additional annual investment of approximately 220 billion CNY (about 31 billion USD) in battery storage capacity. Accounting for behavioral uncertainty, potential load fluctuations could increase by up to 82.7%. Regional heterogeneity in charging patterns drives distinct spatial profiles of electricity variability, influencing the effectiveness of demand-side management strategies. These findings highlight the importance of targeted, behaviorally informed interventions to mitigate grid reliability risks under deep EV adoption.

AB - Large-scale deployment of electric vehicles (EVs) to meet climate goals imposes dual pressures on power system reliability: increased electricity demand and intensified daily load variability arising from uncertain charging behavior. This study quantifies the magnitude and spatial distribution of behavior-induced load variability in China under alternative climate scenarios, using a scalable model calibrated with minute-level EV charging data. EV adoption consistent with carbon-neutrality goals is projected to raise electricity demand by 3.2% in 2050, requiring an additional annual investment of approximately 220 billion CNY (about 31 billion USD) in battery storage capacity. Accounting for behavioral uncertainty, potential load fluctuations could increase by up to 82.7%. Regional heterogeneity in charging patterns drives distinct spatial profiles of electricity variability, influencing the effectiveness of demand-side management strategies. These findings highlight the importance of targeted, behaviorally informed interventions to mitigate grid reliability risks under deep EV adoption.

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/105026860819

U2 - 10.1038/s41467-025-66796-4

DO - 10.1038/s41467-025-66796-4

M3 - Article

C2 - 41495019

AN - SCOPUS:105026860819

SN - 2041-1723

VL - 17

JO - Nature Communications

JF - Nature Communications

IS - 1

M1 - 43

ER -