Economic development and CO₂ emissions in China: a multi-dimensional analysis

TY - JOUR

T1 - Economic development and CO2 emissions in China

T2 - a multi-dimensional analysis

AU - Zhang, Tong

AU - Zheng, Wanru

AU - Li, Hui

AU - Chen, Weiming

AU - Liao, Hua

N1 - Publisher Copyright: © 2025 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.

PY - 2026

Y1 - 2026

N2 - The analysis on driving factors of carbon emissions in different sectors or energy types in China at the provincial level is limited. This study measures the short-term and long-term effects of economic levels on carbon emissions across sectors and energy types respectively, using the provincial data from 2000 to 2019. The results suggest that carbon emissions in transportation sector will keep a rapid increasing trend in all provinces. Those in industrial sector in most provinces will decline with GDP growth, while in less-developed provinces such as Gansu will increase. Those from natural gas consumption in all provinces will increase, suggesting a transition to clean energy. A decomposition of the GDP level elasticity of carbon emissions suggests that the transportation sector and oil contributed the largest to the overall elasticity. The findings provide reference for China’s central and local governments to implement targeted carbon reduction policies by sectors and energy types.

AB - The analysis on driving factors of carbon emissions in different sectors or energy types in China at the provincial level is limited. This study measures the short-term and long-term effects of economic levels on carbon emissions across sectors and energy types respectively, using the provincial data from 2000 to 2019. The results suggest that carbon emissions in transportation sector will keep a rapid increasing trend in all provinces. Those in industrial sector in most provinces will decline with GDP growth, while in less-developed provinces such as Gansu will increase. Those from natural gas consumption in all provinces will increase, suggesting a transition to clean energy. A decomposition of the GDP level elasticity of carbon emissions suggests that the transportation sector and oil contributed the largest to the overall elasticity. The findings provide reference for China’s central and local governments to implement targeted carbon reduction policies by sectors and energy types.

KW - Carbon emissions

KW - decomposition

KW - environmental Kuznets curve

KW - multi-dimensional data

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/105001006728

U2 - 10.1080/13547860.2025.2479311

DO - 10.1080/13547860.2025.2479311

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:105001006728

SN - 1354-7860

VL - 31

SP - 1077

EP - 1098

JO - Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy

JF - Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy

IS - 3

ER -